2012-06-13

Market Comment 2012 June 14th

[Markets and Investors]
German yield goes up while CDS narrows, indicating a high possibility that someone is shorting or clearing up its German government bonds. Rumors have it be Pimco. While Gold price still steadily goes up and stock steadily goes down, people right now still share a high lever of risk-averse'ness together.

 [Money Flow and Asset Performance]
Some anticipate that the lack of market confidence in the European government bonds will eventually get money back to US Treasury, then finds out the yield is so low (or even negative) that it's not even worth it. While much money has already gone into the high yield field, it's going to stay high for a while, but then the risk v.s. payoff isn't justified. The good news is that the banks are already tightening their lending, so even if European banks go into bust, the default rate should not change much into a systemic catastrophe. It is not yet clear whether the money will be rationally go into a good risk-return place like stocks now, given that institutions are slowly pacing their positions in stocks, while at the same time the stock market is gradually going down.

[Opinions on Investments]
Bond is still the safest way to go at this moment in time.
The Greek problem will be likely to last a long time, making people lose confidence in USD and EUR. The rise of the RMB (CNY) is not there yet, so the best choice is Gold
Stocks are gradually going down but the bottom will be reached at some point. Do notice that there are many firms with a good amount of cash in hand (like Apple) so they are not affected at all by the credit tightening. Retails may be affected by the overall economy. High-end luxury and technologies are very good buys.